基于PCA-PLS分析的乡村绿色发展掣肘因子诊断与影响效应研究

Study on the diagnosis and effect of the constraint factors of green development in rural areas based on PCA-PLS analysis

识别乡村绿色发展掣肘因子对推进乡村经济与生态环境协同演进具有重要启示意义。以安徽省为例,运用主成分分析方法,对乡村绿色发展综合指数进行测算,依据主成分分析所得的因子载荷及偏最小二乘回归分析方法,揭示乡村绿色发展的掣肘因子边际效应。结果表明:(1)乡村绿色发展指数由2005年的42.45攀升至2017年的82.45,年均增长5.69%。(2)土地复垦指数、农膜使用量、农村用电强度、农用柴油使用量、化肥施用强度总载荷分别为-0.295、-0.258、-0.235、-0.215、-0.189,乃掣肘乡村绿色发展关键因子。(3)土地复垦指数、农膜使用量、农村用电强度、农用柴油使用量、化肥施用强度对乡村绿色发展弹性系数分别为-0.1036、-0.0339、-0.0228、-0.0977、-0.0136。基于研究结果,提出了促进乡村绿色发展的政策建议。

Identifying the constraint factors of rural green development is of great significance for promoting the collaborative evolution of rural economy and ecological environment.Taking Anhui Province as an example,the comprehensive index of rural green development is calculated through principal component analysis.The marginal effect of the constraint factors of rural green development is revealed according to the factor load obtained by principal component analysis and with the partial least squares regression analysis method.The results show that:1)The rural green development index increased from 42.45 in 2005 to 82.45 in 2017,with an average annual growth rate of 5.69%.2)Land reclamation index,agricultural film usage,rural electricity demand intensity,agricultural diesel oil usage and total load of application intensity of chemical fertilizer were-0.295,-0.258,-0.235,-0.215 and-0.189,respectively,and these were the key factors constraining rural green development.3)The elasticity coefficients of land reclamation index,agricultural film usage,rural electricity demand intensity,agricultural diesel oil usage and fertilizer application intensity on rural green development were-0.1036,-0.0339,-0.0228,-0.0977 and-0.0136,respectively.Based on the research results,the policy suggestions to promote the green development of rural areas are put forward.