要素投入、技术进步与棉花产出增长——基于贝叶斯面板随机前沿模型的实证研究

Factor Inputs,Technological Progress and Cotton Output Growth——Empirical Study Based on Bayesian Stochastic Frontier Analysis

改革开放后,中国棉花生产连续几十年快速增长,但2007年后产出持续下降。是什么因素导致中国棉花产出发生变化?为明晰棉花产出发展内在因素的变化,本文利用1994—2017年12个棉花主产区的投入产出数据,基于约束生产要素产出弹性非负的贝叶斯面板随机前沿模型,以2007年为分界点,分阶段分析了要素投入、技术效率、技术进步对棉花产出增长的影响。研究发现:中国棉花生产以要素驱动为主,要素投入是产出变化的决定性因素。棉花生产技术进步对棉花产出增长的作用在下降,但生产技术使用效率较高。未来要推动中国棉花产出增长必须加大研发投入,推进棉花生产体制机制改革,提高技术使用效率和资源产出效率。

To clarify the changes of internal factors in the development of cotton output in recent years,this paper uses input-output data from 1994 to 2017 and the Bayesian panel stochastic frontier model to analyze the effects of factor input,technical efficiency,and technological progress on the growth of cotton output in stages.It is found that factor-driven cotton production is the main factor in China,and factor input is the decisive factor of output change.The effect of technological progress in cotton production on the growth of cotton output is declining,but the use efficiency of production technology is higher.Increasing R&D investment,promoting the reform of the cotton production system and mechanism,and improving the efficiency of technology use and resource output is need of promoting China’s cotton output growth in the future.