考虑风险测度的配电网精准投资项目优选模型

Risk Constrained Investment Portfolio Model for Distribution Network Projects With Efficiency Optimization

随着配电网发展面临的不可控因素增多且配电网投资竞争加剧,电网企业须更多考虑投资风险、单位投产效益等精准投资要素。为此,文章融合配电网发展诊断指标,建立配电网项目投资效益评估的双层指标体系,用以计及单位投资效率与宏观投资效益。并采用条件风险价值测度将单个项目收益率的分布特征计入投资风险,定义了含风险偏好置信度的投资风险最小目标函数。然后,将投资总额、电网发展需求、项目间耦合关系等作为约束,构建了以效率与风险为目标的配电网投资组合多目标优化模型,应用模糊满意度理论求解得到投资策略。最后,以某电网某批次投资计划20个项目进行算例仿真,并分析了风险偏好及目标倾向对配电网精准投资的影响。结果表明,所提模型能较好地反映配电网投资的风险水平,并通过投资组合规避风险,实现了整体投资效益约束下,投资效率与风险均衡的配电网项目优选。

As distribution networks nowadays are facing the increasing uncertainties and the intensifying investment competition, the cost-effective issues need to be carefully considered, including financial risk, investment efficiency, and project portfolio optimization. Hence, this paper proposes a two-tiered index system by integrating the development diagnosis indexes of distribution networks, which is applied in the evaluation of the investment benefit of the distribution network projects and the assessment of the investment efficiency of an individual project. Moreover, in order to count the distribution characteristics of the project yield into investment risk caused by project uncertainties, the conditional value at risk(CVa R) is chosen to redefine the minimum objective function based on the confidence of risk preference. A multi-objective optimization model for distribution network portfolio investment is established to co-optimize the trade-off between efficiency and risk, with the total investment, load balance and coupling relationships among projects as the constraints. The model is solved by fuzzy satisfaction to get precise investment strategies. The proposed model is validated using 20 projects in a package of investment plan of a power grid company as case study. In addition, the influence of investment risk preference and target emphasis are further investigated on distribution network optimal investment. The case studies show that the proposed model is able to quantify investment risk which can be mitigated by performing portfolio decision. The method also enables the optimal projects sorting for distribution network development with the balanced trade-off between investment risk and efficacy under the constraint of investment benefit.