基于地震参数的人员死亡评估模型对比研究

Comparison of Four Seismic Fatality Assessment Models Based on Seismic Parameters

基于中国1993—2017年的历史地震资料,通过对四个现行地震灾害人员死亡评估模型进行对比,深入分析不同模型在不同震级(M)及不同地区的适用性和精度。研究结果表明:(1)当M<6.0时,四个模型评估结果与实际死亡人数数量级基本一致,均适用于震后人员伤亡快速评估;当6.0≤M<7.0时,四个模型评估结果与实际死亡人数差距较大,经过参数修正后的刘金龙模型评估结果相对较好;当M≥7.0时,四个模型的评价结果都不理想,需要结合震区地理环境、经济条件等进行人工修正才能使用;(2)在地震较多的云南、四川、甘肃、新疆、西藏五个省份中,GB/T 30352-2013评估结果优于其他三个模型;在四川、云南、甘肃地区评估时需考虑次生地质灾害因素的影响,不然可能会导致评估误差较大。研究结果可为各级政府和应急管理部门地震灾害应急业务能力的提升提供技术支持。

Based on the historical earthquake data during 1993-2017 in China,the applicability and accuracy of four existing models for evaluating seismic fatality with different earthquake magnitudes and different regions were comparatively analyzed.The results showed that:(1)when M<6.0,the evaluation results of four models are basically consistent with the actual number of deaths,and all of them are suitable for the rapid post-earthquake casualty assessment;when 6.0≤M<7.0,there is a large gap between the evaluation results of four models and the actual death toll,and the the evaluation results of Liu Jinlong's model after parameter correction are relatively good;when M≥7.0,the evaluation results of the four models are not ideal,and need to make artificial correction in combination with the geographical environment and economic conditions of the earthquake area.(2)In Yunnan,Sichuan,Gansu,Xinjiang,and Tibet,the results of GB/T 30352-2013 are better than the other three models;in Sichuan,Yunnan,and Gansu,the influence of secondary geological hazards should be taken into account,otherwise,it may lead to large evaluation error.The study results can provide technical support for governments and emergency management departments at all levels to improve their emergency response capacity for earthquake disasters.