秦皇岛市空气质量特征分析及其预测模型

Characteristics Analysis and Prediction Model of Air Quality in Qinhuangdao City

以秦皇岛市为研究对象,对其2015~2019年空气质量的变化特征进行分析,得出秦皇岛市空气质量的特征和变化趋势,并建立了秦皇岛市空气质量指数的预测模型。分别采用2种预测方案,并在每种方案中选用不同的预测模型:方案1,基于AQI时间序列的乘积季节模型;方案2,基于气象因子的BP神经网络AQI预测模型。通过对比不同模型的预测及结果,得到2个模型中最适合秦皇岛市空气质量指数的预测模型为乘积季节模型。

Taking Qinhuangdao City as the research object,the change characteristics of air quality from 2015 to 2019 were analyzed,and the distribution characteristics and change trend of air quality in Qinhuangdao City were obtained.Two kinds of forecasting schemes are adopted to establish the air quality prediction model of Qinhuangdao city with different prediction model each:the product season model based on AQI time series;the AQI prediction model of BP neural network based on meteorological factors.Through the comparison of the prediction and results of different models,it is concluded that the product seasonal model is the most suitable model for air quality prediction in Qinhuangdao city.