中国中长期能源低碳转型路径的综合比较研究

A comprehensive comparative study of China’s medium and long-term energy and low-carbon transition path

《巴黎气候协定》要求各缔约方国家及早制定并提交面向2050年的中长期低碳转型战略。在当前形势下,能源互联网被认为是实现能源绿色低碳转型的战略途径。综述了国内外能源低碳转型战略相关研究成果,提出中国通过可再生能源结合储能技术、煤基能源结合碳捕集利用与封存技术均可实现能源系统大规模碳减排。同时,构建了"安全-经济-环境持续"三角+公众认可度的分析框架,综合分析不同转型路径在技术成熟度、产业影响、成本效益、政策需求等方面的特点。研究认为,中国中长期能源低碳转型应当立足国家能源资源禀赋条件和现有能源电力系统基础设施的同时,着眼长远进行变革性、战略性技术储备。此外,还需加大对不同路径间具有耦合潜力的关键技术,如碳捕集与利用技术、新能源制氢等的前瞻评估。

The "Paris Climate Agreement" requires all contracting countries to formulate and submit a medium and longterm low-carbon transition strategy for 2050 as early as possible. Under the current situation, the internet of energy is considered to be a strategic way to realize energy green and low-carbon transition. This paper summarized the energy low-carbon transition strategies in current researches, then proposed that China can achieve large carbon emission reduction goal in the energy system by applying renewable energy combined with storage technology, and applying coal-based energy combined with carbon capture, utilization and storage technology. At the same time,an analysis framework combining the triangle with safety,economy, and environmental sustainable and public recognition was constructed to comprehensively analyze the characteristics of different transformation paths in terms of technological maturity, industrial impact, cost-effectiveness, and policy requirements. It is believed that China’s medium and long-term energy and low-carbon transition should be based on China’s energy resource endowments and existing energy and power system infrastructure, and focused on long-term transformational and strategic technological reserves. In addition, it is necessary to increase the forward-looking assessment of key technologies with coupling potential between different paths, such as carbon capture and utilization technology, and new energy hydrogen production.