拜登政府执政后的重大国际问题笔谈

Biden’s Foreign Policy in A Transformed World—A Panel Discussion

由于美国国内政治极化严重,恢复经济、控制疫情、弥合国内社会撕裂等成为拜登政府的当务之急。而且由于特朗普政府时期的一些对外政策具有一定的社会基础,美国两党在一些领域也有共识,所以在一些重大国际问题上,拜登政府的立场和政策将以延续为主、调整为辅。同时,鉴于拜登阵营的建制派背景,其在国际问题上将更注重以多边主义和国际合作的方式推进相关政策。具体而言,在亚太安全领域,拜登政府对特朗普政府政策的延续将大于变化;美欧关系将有所拉近;中美俄和美欧俄战略三角关系的调整将对美俄关系未来产生影响。拜登政府以重振美国国际领导权为重要目标,对多边主义国际秩序将产生较大影响。在全球卫生治理领域,拜登政府将努力消除特朗普政府时期外交政策的负面影响。在重返亚太区域经济一体化问题上,美国短期内不会有实质性行动。在科技产业领域,特朗普政府时期的政策基调将得到延续,中国需努力遏制双方关系恶化的势头,为自身发展营造稳定的外部环境。

With growing political polarization at home,the Biden administration is prioritizing economic recovery,pandemic containment,and social justice.In terms of foreign policy,restoring U.S.leadership will be the top concern for President Biden,who is expected to revive the multilateralist approach to an increasingly fragmented world order.Nonetheless,considering the popularity of some of Trump’s policies and the bipartisan consensus on such issues as the growing China threat,Biden is likely to retain some of his predecessor’s policies while making necessary adjustments to others.Specifically,President Biden will continue Trump’s China-focused Asia policy.U.S.-EU relations will be strengthened,while Washington’s relations with Moscow will be affected by the complex diplomacy among China,Russia,the United States,and the European Union.President Biden is also expected to mitigate the negative effects of his predecessor’s reckless policies on global health governance,but act cautiously on pushing further economic integration in Asia before a comprehensive review is completed.In anticipation of both continuity and change in U.S.foreign policy,Beijing should work hard to prevent further deterioration of the bilateral relationship and create a stable international environment for its own development.