绿色经济模式的演进脉络与超循环经济趋势

Evolution paths of green economy modes and their trend of hypercycle economy

目前对于绿色经济模式的演进脉络和规律,尤其是未来的发展趋势,尚缺乏专门性和全过程的研究。现有相关研究只是针对其中的子过程展开的,但仍存在模式分类有交集、不完备和缺乏机理模型描述等不足。这些正是该文拟解决的问题。首先,根据可持续发展理论和超循环理论等,结合实际调研,对绿色经济模式进行合理提炼、分类和脉络梳理。然后,运用系统结构建模方法,构建各绿色经济模式的理论模型及其在实际领域(以林业为例)中的多层级动态演进模型。最后,借助以上模型对绿色经济模式的演进规律进行系统分析。由此得出以下几点结论:(1)绿色经济模式的总体演进历程包含三个阶段,起步阶段是"从摇篮到坟墓"的末端治理型绿色经济(Ⅰ型GE);成长阶段是"从摇篮到摇篮"的资源链闭环绿色经济(Ⅱ型GE);成熟阶段是"从孕育到孕育"的三链超循环型绿色经济(Ⅲ型GE)。(2)Ⅱ型GE又经历了一个具体的演进过程。从深度视角看,它以循环经济理论为基本框架,并逐步融合了清洁生产、低碳经济和共享经济等理论和技术;从广度视角看,它包含从一元企业Ⅱ型GE到多元企业(群)Ⅱ型GE,再到全社会Ⅱ型GE的逐层拓展过程。Ⅱ型GE的运行原理可以用3R理论模型加以描述,它包含减量化、再循环和再利用(3R)子系统,由资源链将它们联系成一个有机整体。(3)Ⅲ型GE正在经历一个具体的演进过程。从资源链一级超循环到生态链二级超循环,再到价值链三级超循环的三链(3C)逐级拓展的过程。Ⅲ型GE的运行原理可以用5R-3C理论模型加以描述,它包含减量化、再循环、再利用、再培育和再配置(5R)子系统,由资源链、生态链和价值链将它们连接成一个环境-经济自组织系统。其中,资源链是基础,生态链是支撑,价值链是动力,3C超循环相互促进、相互催化,从而实现生态与产业的互利共生。(4)Ⅲ型GE以可再生资源型产业为核心体,并扩展到其他相关产业,乃至全社会。目前,Ⅲ型GE在实践中已显露雏形;而在未来,它是面向生态文明的绿色经济的发展趋势。

So far there is a lack of specialized research on the entire path and the law of the evolution of green economy modes,especially studies on its future trend.Some studies have been done only on its sub-process,in which there are some shortcomings such as overlapping and incomplete classification of economy modes,as well as the lack of mechanism models to describe the modes.This paper attempts to solve those problems.Firstly,various green economy modes are extracted and classified,and then their evolution paths are identified and reviewed,according to sustainable development theory,hypercycle theory,etc.,and to practical investigation.Secondly,theoretical models for each green economy mode and their multilevel dynamic evolution models in a practical field(forestry as an example)are established by the modeling method of system structure.Finally,the evolution law of green economy mode is analyzed systematically by means of the above-mentioned models.According to the research,some conclusions are drawn as follows:①Green economy modes have evolved through three stages as a whole.The first is the start-up stage,in which the mode is the‘from cradle to grave’end-treatment green economy(GE-Ⅰ).The second is the growth stage,in which the mode is the‘from cradle to cradle’resources-chain closed-loopgreen economy(GE-Ⅱ).The third is the mature stage,in which the mode will be the‘from breeding to breeding’three-chain hypercycle economy(GE-Ⅲ).②GE-Ⅱhas evolved through a specific process.In depth,the basic framework of GE-Ⅱis based on the circular economy theory;and then it is combined gradually with some other relevant theories and technologies that are cleaner production,low-carbon economy and sharing economy and so on.In breadth,GE-Ⅱis expanded layer by layer from unified enterprise GE-Ⅱto diversified enterprise(or cluster)GE-Ⅱ,and to societal GE-Ⅱ.The operational principle of GE-Ⅱcan be described by 3R theoretical model that includes 3 subsystems of reduction,recycle and reuse(3R),which are connected into an organic whole by resources chain.③GE-Ⅲis evolving through a specific process of three-chain(3C)stage by stage expansion,from resources-chainprimary hypercycle to eco-chain secondary hypercycle,and to value-chain tertiary hypercycle.The operational principle of GE-Ⅲcan be described by 5R-3C theoretical model that includes 5 subsystems of reduction,recycle,reuse,recultivation and reallocation(5R),which are connected into an environment-economy self-organizing system by resources chain,eco-chain and value chain.In the system,resources chain is the foundation,eco-chain is the support,and value chain is the impetus.The 3C hypercycles promote and catalyze each other to realize mutualism between ecosystem and industrial system.④The related field of GE-Ⅲincludes the principal part of renewable-resource-based industry,and the expanded part of other relevant industries and even the whole society.Now in practice,GE-Ⅲhas initially formed.And in the future,it is the development tendency of green economy toward the establishment of the ecological civilization.