国际液化天然气贸易复杂网络演化研究

Research on the Evolution of Complex Networks in International LNG Trade

随着中国提出推进生态文明建设,美国、俄罗斯等液化天然气供应量大幅度增加,全球液化天然气贸易市场发生剧烈变化,通过全面分析液化天然气贸易网络的动态演化规律及其驱动因素,了解未来液化天然气贸易网络的特征变得尤为重要。本研究根据当前国际液化天然气贸易中核心驱动因素(国际社会减排政策,供应与需求)定义了国家液化天然气贸易吸引度;并通过复杂网络方法,进一步构建了根据国家液化天然气贸易吸引度及距离的加权BBV网络演化模型,对2016~2018年国际液化天然气贸易网络进行演化分析,验证了该演化模型的有效性,进一步演化分析2021年国际液化天然气贸易网络结果表明:国际液化天然气贸易网络的平均路径长度减小,贸易效率得到提高;网络平均聚集系数增加,节点联系更为紧密;网络结构熵变大,无序性增强;网络的平均度值增加,各个国家的液化天然气贸易伙伴数量增加;网络核值变大,其中美国、中国和日本等节点在网络中的核心程度增加。因此,应加强基础建设、互联互通、积极寻求合作和提升核心地位。

As China proposes to promote the construction of ecological civilization,the supply of liquefied natural gas(LNG)in the United States and Russia has increased significantly,and the global liquefied natural gas trading market has undergone drastic changes.Understanding characteristics of future LNG trading network through a comprehensive analysis of the dynamic evolution of the LNG trading network and its driving factors is of particular importance.This study defines the national LNG trade attractiveness based on the core driving factors in the current international LNG trade(international society's emission reduction policies,supply and demand);and through a complex network method,it further establishes the national LNG trade attractiveness and distance Based on the weighted BBV network evolution model,the evolution analysis of the international LNG trade network from 2016 to 2018 verified the validity of the evolution model,and further evolved and analyzed the international LNG trade network in 2021.The results show that:the average path length of the network is reduced,and trade efficiency is improved;the average aggregation coefficient of the network increases,and the nodes are more closely connected;the entropy of the network structure becomes larger,and the disorder is enhanced;the average degree of the network increases,and the number of LNG trading partners in each country increase;the core value of the network becomes larger,and the core degree of nodes such as the United States,China,and Japan in the network increases.Understanding the relevant characteristics of the future international LNG trade network and the core driving factors behind it will play an extremely important role in China's policy of strengthening the construction of domestic LNG ports,strengthening interconnection,and actively seeking cooperation.