基于大地测量应变率的川滇地区浅源地震预测

Shallow Seismicity Forecast for the Sichuan-Yunnan Area Based on Geodetic Strain Rates

大地测量应变率场反映了现今地壳运动的特征,能够用来预测地震灾害。本文采用中国地震科学实验场的大地测量应变率模型和1977年~2016年全球震源机制解(GCMT)地震目录,预测川滇地区每一百年将会发生26次Mw6.0+、8次Mw6.5+、3次Mw7.0+浅源地震,并分别从内、外符合角度进行质量评估,表明预测结果具有较好的可靠性。预测结果也说明川滇地区的形变模式较复杂,无法简单用块体模型和连续形变模型来描述。

Geodetic strain rate field reflects the characteristics of current crustal motion and can be used to forecast seismicity disaster.It is forecasted by means of the geodetic strain rate model of the China Earthquake Science Experiment Field and the 1977-2016 Global Centroid Moment Tensor(GCMT)earthquake catalog that there may occur about 26 Mw6.0+,8 Mw6.5+,and 3 Mw7.0+earthquakes every 100 years in the Sichuan and Yunnan area.Quality assessment from the perspective of internal and external coincidence shows that the forecast result has good reliability.The forecast result also indicates that the deformation model in the Sichuan-Yunnan area is relatively complex and cannot be described simply by block and continuum deformation models.