中国省级GDP构成与南北经济分化

Composition of Chinese Provincial GDP and Economic Differentiation between North and South

实施区域协调发展战略是新时代国家重大战略之一,厘清中国省级GDP的构成和来源以及相互间经济绩效竞争反应程度具有重要意义。本文基于2002年、2007年和2010年中国30个省(自治区、直辖市)区域间投入产出数据、2001—2010年中国省级政府工作报告和相关统计年鉴,从一个新的切入点着手,探析中国省级GDP的"内需渠道"和"外需渠道",并就同级地方政府GDP"目标约束"下的相互追赶效应进行了全方位考察。研究发现国内价值链合作对中国经济增长的贡献日趋重要;同梯队政府间存在强烈的经济绩效"竞赛";省际间经贸合作水平越紧密,地方政府间的经济绩效"竞赛"越强;除本省出口"渠道"引起经济重心北移,其余8个"渠道"均显示经济重心不断南移。关注国内价值链的构建和政府竞争行为是有针对性地展开省份合作和缩小区域发展不平衡的必经路径。

Regional coordinative development is China’s one important strategy in the new era. It is of great significance to clarify the composition and source of China’s provincial GDP and the local competitive reaction on economic performance. Based on the provincial and regional input-output data in 2002, 2007 and 2010, the working report of provincial governments from 2001 to 2010 and related statistical yearbooks, this paper explores the "domestic demand channel" and "external demand channel" of Chinese provincial GDP. It also makes a comprehensive investigation on the mutual catch-up effect of governments at the same administrative level under GDP target constraint. The paper finds that the contribution of NVC cooperation to China’s economic growth is becoming more and more important. There is a strong competition for economic performance among the governments at the same administrative level. The closer the economic and trade cooperation among provinces, the stronger the effect of competition will be. Except for provincial export that causes the economic core to shift to north, other eight channels all show that the economic center is constantly moving to south. Focusing on the construction of domestic value chain and the government’s competitive behavior is necessary for developing inter-regional cooperation and balancing regional development.