社会经济视角下新冠肺炎疫情危机推演与防控分析

Analysis of crisis deduction and prevention and control during COVID-19 pandemic from a socio-economic perspective

为提高新冠肺炎疫情(COVID-19)危机防控能力,从社会经济角度出发,利用灾害演化理论和方法,研究COVID-19危机演化机制和特点,并进一步提出相应风险防控措施;通过案例分析,构建社会经济视角下COVID-19危机事件演化网络,依据演化先后顺序对各危机事件作分级和归类;针对构建的演化网络,分析危机事件节点出入度及其演化模式,并提出治理策略和措施。结果表明:COVID-19引发的企业效益下降危机事件威胁最大;COVID-19危机演化过程中循环演化方式对社会经济活动的影响最为严重;在应对COVID-19危机时,可结合不同演化方式的特点阻断防控危机事件诱发条件。

In order to improve abilities to prevent and control COVID-19,its mechanism and characteristics were studied from a socio-economic perspective by using disaster evolution theory and methods,and corresponding measures about risk prevention and control were proposed.Firstly,An evolution network of COVID-19 crisis events was constructed through case analysis from a socio-economic perspective before these events were further graded and classified according to gradual sequence.Then,degree of entry and exit of crisis event nodes and its evolution mode were analyzed for the evolutionary network.Moreover,some governance strategies and measures were proposed.The results show that the crisis event of"decline in business efficiency"caused by COVID-19 is the most threatening while cyclical evolution method during crisis evolution has the greatest impact on social and economic activities.In response to COVID-19,characteristics of different evolutionary models could be considered and utilized to block and prevent inducing conditions of crisis events.