集成“能力-时效-决策”的应急处置效果预评估模型

A capacity-efficiency-decision integrated pre-assessment model for effectiveness of emergency plans

为帮助应急指挥官优化任务调度和资源配置,首先,分析应急处置的基本模式,并定义包括行动目标、行动模块、应急资源、指挥者等基本元素在内的应急处置关系结构模型;其次,利用时效性评估、广义优先关系(GPRs)、C2组织架构(C2OS)等理论,建立能力满足度、时效性、决策质量等单项评估函数;然后,组合得到集成"能力-时效-决策"的应急处置效果预评估模型;最后,结合算例对不同处置方案进行预评估和比较分析,并验证该模型的有效性。结果表明:集成"能力-时效-决策"的评估模型可满足通用的应急处置效果预评估需求;存在诸多途径可以增强应急处置预期效果,包括改良资源配置及赋能效率、优化处置行动及其GPRs结构、完善指挥层级架构等。

In order to optimize task scheduling and resource allocation,firstly,basic pattern of emergency disposal was analyzed,and a structural model of emergency disposal with fundamental elements like objects,action modules,resources,decision-makers was defined.Secondly,single assessment functions,including capacity satisfaction,action efficiency and decision quality were constructed successively by incorporating theories of efficiency evaluation,GPRs and command&control organizational structure(C2 OS).Then,a capacity-efficiency-decision integrated pre-assessment model for effectiveness of emergency plans was established.Finally,different disposal plans were assessed and compared through case studies,and effectiveness of the model was verified.The results show that the integrated model can be applied to pre-assess expected effectiveness of emergency plans which can be improved by various measures,such as improving allocation and empowerment effectiveness of resources,optimizing selection and GPRs network of action modules,and refining hierarchy of decision-makers.