低生育率危机下的荷兰生育激励政策

Pronatalist Policies in the Low Fertility Netherlands

每个国家都会因各自人口发展的特征制定相关的人口政策或社会政策。相关政策或多或少、直接或间接显示出社会在一定时期内期望的人口发展方向。从总和生育率来考察,荷兰在20世纪70年代就进入低生育水平的国家行列。表面上看荷兰没有类似中国这样明确的人口发展目标的政策。但从政策的类别和内容上看,荷兰明显有与人口发展相关的政策,各类政策对生育有不可忽视的影响。本文主要利用联合国和荷兰政府的官方资料以及荷兰学者的研究成果回应三个与人口发展有关的重要问题。首先,在介绍荷兰人口发展的历史状况和人口问题产生的背景之后,分析荷兰为什么需要担心人口的发展;其次,呈现荷兰政府对其自身人口发展状况的看法和态度;第三,梳理荷兰人口的相关政策,说明该国在不同人口发展阶段对人口政策的调整及其现有的人口相关政策和一些政策落脚点的特点。从总和生育率的角度看,荷兰相关政策起到一定的提升生育率的作用。本文亦整理了荷兰人口相关政策,为现阶段中国人口发展政策制定提供了有效参考的可能路径,指出效仿荷兰将直接促进生育的政策和与其相关的间接经济支持和文化支持政策结合起来是可供现阶段低生育水平下的中国促进生育意愿、优化生育氛围的有效措施。

Countries with different population development may develop their own population or social policies accordingly.The policies somehow directly or indirectly reveal the expectation of the society on their population development.The Netherlands has been a low fertility country since 1970s judged by total fertility rate.It seems that the Netherlands does not have overt population policies like China does.However,from the types and contents of policies implemented in the Netherlands,the country obviously has popula⁃tion related policies and the impact of the policies cannot be ignored.This article,using official data from the United Nations and the Netherlands as well as researches mainly by Dutch scholars,answered three research questions.First,why the Netherlands needs to worry about their population development.Second,how the government has been thinking about their population development.And third,what are the popula⁃tion policies currently implemented in the country and the characteristics of the concerns of the policies.Discussion on the Netherlands’population policies will help us to reflect our view on population develop⁃ment and population intervention.This study also recommended some possible ways to develop population policy(ies)in China.The direct fertility promotion policy with some indirect economic support and new culture cultivation,like what did in the Netherlands,might be a good and effective way for China to learn to enhance the fertility level.