基于利率市场化的货币政策调控区域效应

Regional Effect of Monetary Policy Regulation Based on Interest Rate Marketization

对货币政策调控的区域差异效应进行理论和现实分析。使用省际面板数据构建实证模型,按照时间"两分法"和地区"三分法",采用动态系统GMM法探究货币政策区域差异效应的影响。研究发现:中国东、中、西部地区存在货币政策区域差异效应,原因在于区域经济和产业结构等中观因素,以及商业银行信贷行为、企业所有制结构等微观因素的共同作用;随着利率市场化的推进,货币政策工具的调控效果均有所改善,利率市场化对货币政策传导机制产生了良性影响;由于区域经济市场化程度差异,货币政策利率工具对东部地区的影响效果较为明显,信贷规模管理工具对中、西部地区的作用比较显著。

This paper makes a theoretical and practical analysis on the regional difference effect of monetary policy regulation.An empirical model is constructed by using provincial panel data,and according to the time"dichotomy"and regional"tripartite method",the impact of regional difference effect of monetary policy is explored by using dynamic system GMM method.The results show that the regional difference effect of monetary policy exists in the eastern,central and western regions of China due to the joint efforts of meso factors such as regional economy and industrial structure,and micro factors such as the credit behavior of commercial banks and enterprise ownership structure.With the advance of interest rate marketization,the regulatory effect of monetary policy tools has been improved.Interest rate marketization has favorable impact on the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.Due to the difference in the marketization degree of regional economy,the effect of monetary policy interest rate tools on the eastern region is more obvious,while the effect of credit scale management tool on the central and western regions is more significant.