业绩困境会影响企业的风险承担吗——基于管理者过度自信视角的实证研究

Can Performance Dilemma Affect the Risk-taking of Enterprises? An Empirical Research from the Perspective of Managers’ Overconfidence

企业陷入业绩困境时如何应对企业的风险承担,仍然是目前迫切需要解决的重要问题之一。将业绩困境细分为横向业绩困境水平和纵向业绩困境水平(即社会期望水平和历史期望水平)两个维度,理论构建和实证分析业绩困境对企业风险承担的作用机理。研究表明,随着业绩困境程度的增加,企业的风险承担呈现先升后降的态势,并且管理者过度自信会显著调节业绩困境与企业风险承担之间的关系。在此基础上,进一步发现在不同产权性质下,历史和社会期望落差均与企业风险承担行为的影响存在显著性差异。通过对业绩困境影响企业风险承担的作用路径进行系统梳理,丰富管理者过度自信和企业风险承担的文献,为企业风险承担、管理者的聘任提供理论依据和实践参考。

In times of performance dilemma,how to deal with the risk-taking of enterprises is one of the urgent problems to be solved.The paper classifies performance dilemma into two dimensions,including horizontal performance dilemma and vertical performance dilemma(i.e.social expectation level and historical expectation level).The mechanism of performance dilemma on enterprise risk-taking is analyzed theoretically and empirically.The research shows that the risk-taking of enterprise has the tendency of increasing first and then turning to decrease,and the overconfidence of managers can significantly regulate the relationship between performance dilemma and the risk-taking of enterprise.On this basis,it is further found that under different property rights,there are significant differences between the historical and social expectation gap and the impact of corporate risk-taking behaviors.By systematically analyzing the influencing path of performance dilemma on the risk-taking of enterprise,the paper enriches the literatures on the overconfidence of managers and enterprise risk-taking,and provides theoretical basis and practical reference for enterprise risk-taking and the employment of managers.