气候变化的转型风险对宏观经济和金融稳定的影响——基于存量流量一致性模型视角

Impact of Transition Risks of Climate Change on Macroeconomic and Financial Stability--From the Perspective of Stock Flow Consistent Models

气候变化及其应对政策会对一国宏观经济发展和金融稳定产生重要影响。本文基于生态经济学和气候变化适应性研究理论,构建了一个“气候变化—政策响应—经济增长—金融稳定”的影响传导路径。并依据该气候风险传导路径,以代表绿色金融政策的绿色支持因子(GSF)和代表绿色财政政策的碳税(CT)为主要政策场景,基于中国1990—2018年的实际数据,运用存量流量一致性模型(SFC model)对四部门国民经济体系进行情景模拟。研究结果显示:碳税对宏观经济的影响有限,但绿色支持因子对经济的影响与政策强度有关,在一定范围内,政策强度越高,其对经济发展的负向影响越强。同时,由于用以抵御气候变化风险而出台绿色经济政策类型和施行期间长短的不同,其对金融稳定性的影响有显著差异,其中绿色支持因子政策会削弱以银行为中心的金融系统稳定性。因此,“休克式”绿色金融政策在中国并不可取,探索合理的绿色政策实施力度意义重大。

Climate change and its coping strategies have important impacts on a country's macroeconomic development and financial stability.Based on the theories of ecological economics and climate change adaptability,this paper constructs a transmission path of“climate change-policy response-economic growth-financial stability”.Under the main policy scenario representing the green financial policy and green fiscal policy with the green support factor(GSF)and carbon tax(CT)respectively,this paper uses stock-flow consistent model(SFC Model)to simulate the four-sector national economic system with the Chinese data covering the period from 1990 to 2018 according to the climate risk transmission path above.The results show that:carbon tax has limited macroeconomic impacts,but the impact of green support factor on economy depends on the policy intensity.In a certain range,the higher the policy intensity is,the stronger the negative impact on economic development is.At the same time,due to the differences in green economic policies and the duration of implementation,the impacts on financial stability are significantly different.Among them,the green support factor policy weakens the stability of the bank-centered financial system.Therefore,the“shock type”green financial policy is not desirable in China,and it is of great significance to explore the reasonable implementation of green policy.