美国国家情报评估的理论与实践探索

The Theory and Practice Exploration of National Intelligence Estimates

[目的/意义]国家情报评估是供美国决策层使用的、在国家安全事务方面最权威的书面评估,研究国家情报评估的理论渊源有助于深入其本质。[方法/过程]梳理国家情报评估实践与理论准备,分析该评估实施中秉承的基本原则,总结美国情报界有关国家情报评估的争鸣。[结果/结论]美国的国家情报评估经过理论与实践的探索,逐步形成了一些行之有效的基本原则,同时也出现诸多争论和分歧,这些分歧既是情报评估活动当下面临的困境,也是情报理论突破的未来机遇所在。

[Purpose/Significance]The National Intelligence Estimates(NIEs)are the most authoritative written assessment for national security affairs used by American decision-makers.Studying the theoretical origin will help deepen its essence.[Method/Process]The article sorts out the practice and theoretical preparations for NIEs,summarizes the basic principles upheld in its practice,and analyzes the contention of the US intelligence community about NIEs.[Result/Conclusion]After theoretical and practical exploration,the NIEs have gradually formed some effective basic principles.At the same time,there have been many disputes and disagreements.The dilemma is also the future opportunity for breakthroughs in intelligence theory.