老年人能工作多久?——中国退休年龄人口额外工作能力研究

How Long Can the Elderly Work? A Study on the Additional Work Capacity of China's Retired Population

本文从健康角度估计了中国老年劳动力的额外工作能力,估算了退休年龄人口可支撑的额外工作年限。研究结果发现,男性60岁至74岁的额外工作能力为2.78年,女性50岁至64岁为2.18年,女性50岁至74岁的额外工作能力将达到4.85年。本文进一步区分了劳动者的受教育程度和户口状态,发现额外工作能力随受教育程度的提高而增加,且城镇人口的额外工作能力显著高于农村人口。本文研究结论表明,中国老年劳动力的健康状况总体上能够支撑2~5年的额外工作年限,特别是高学历的城镇老年人口,因而适当延长退休年龄能够使人力资源得到更充分的利用。

This paper estimates the extra work capacity of China's elderly labor from a health perspective.Results indicate that for men aged 60 to 74 years,they could work additional 2.78 years on average.For women aged 50-64,they could work 2.18 additional years on average,and 4.85 more years for women between the ages of 50 to 74.In further differentiating the effects of education and hukou status,we find that the extra work capacity is larger for the high educated group and the non-agricultural group.Therefore,an appropriate extension of retirement age could make better use of the available human resources.