基于“产业—企业—空间”的沈阳市经济韧性特征

Economic resilience characteristics of Shenyang city based on a perspective of industry-enterprise-space

新常态背景下,东北地区与其他区域相比经济下行明显,适应能力较差,即区域经济韧性较弱。产业和企业是区域宏观经济的中微观载体,有助于揭示区域宏观经济韧性的中微观特征,却鲜少有研究。本文从宏观经济增量、中观产业增量及结构变化和微观企业空间动态,分析了1978年以来沈阳市经济韧性的特征。研究发现:(1)在全国经济周期影响下,沈阳市经济韧性的变化呈现出"弱—强—弱"的周期性特征,主要是受第二产业韧性的波动变化影响。以支柱产业演替为代表的新老路径产业的韧性变化差异明显,其中老路径产业中机械产业韧性的"强—弱"变化对第二产业的韧性变化影响较大,其韧性减弱主要是由自身竞争力不足造成的。(2)在全国经济"增速换挡"放缓的影响下,企业存活率的结果表明,老路径产业企业的韧性强于新路径产业企业的韧性;除食品产业外,其余产业老企业的韧性都强于新企业的韧性。另外初步发现,老路径产业和新路径产业中的电子等技术密集型制造业的新进入企业表现出对中心城区的"空间"路径依赖性,"空间集聚"对企业存活存在正向积极作用。

In the era of China’s New Normal,compared with other regions in China,the Northeast region has been in obvious economic downturn featured by its weak adaption,or in other words,weak regional economic resilience.However,there is a lack of study on how middle or micro economic sectors,particularly industries and enterprises could shape the resilience level of regional macro economy.This paper,therefore,tries to fill this gap by analyzing the multi-level characteristics of Shenyang’s economic resilience since 1978,with regard to its economic growth,industrial restructuring,and enterprise spatial dynamics.We found that affected by China’s development status,resilience level of Shenyang’s economy shows a weak-strong-weak cycle,driven by the fluctuation of its secondary industry.There are obvious differences in the resilience level of old and new paths in Shenyang.In particular,due to its low competitiveness,the resilience level of mechanical industry in old paths has weakened and imposed greater impacts on secondary industry.Meanwhile,the survival rate of old and new enterprises indicates that the resilience level of old paths enterprises is stronger than that of the new paths ones under the context of national economy slowing down;except for enterprises in food industry,the resilience level of old enterprises is stronger than that of the new ones.Moreover,this research indicates that new enterprises of technology-intensive industry such as the old paths and the electronic industry in new paths show a spatial path dependence of city center,and spatial agglomeration has positive effects on enterprises’survival.