“一带一路”国家贸易便利化水平对中国出口的影响

Research on the Impact of Trade Facilitation Level of the Belt and Road Countries on China’s Export Trade Structure

新冠肺炎疫情的爆发,加速了全球贸易格局重构,"一带一路"国家在我国对外经贸关系中的支撑作用增强。本文运用主成分分析法构建起一套指标体系,测算出"一带一路"沿线50个国家的贸易便利化水平,并基于拓展引力模型分析其对中国出口的影响。除进行总量分析外,本文还分别从要素结构、技术结构、经济用途结构和二元边际结构等方面对中国出口产品结构进行分类,详细分析了贸易便利化对各类出口产品的异质性影响。研究表明:提升沿线国家的贸易便利化水平可以极大促进我国出口贸易流量的提升,并优化中国的出口贸易结构;与国内生产总值、人口和区域经济一体化组织相比,贸易便利化对中国出口的促进作用更为显著,其中以口岸与物流效率和海关与边境管理对中国出口影响最大。贸易便利化对中国出口高技术含量产品和资本密集型产品促进作用显著,表明其对中国出口贸易结构的转型升级具有积极的正面作用。

The outbreak of Covid-19 epidemic accelerates the reconstruction of global trade pattern and the supporting role of"Belt and Road"countries in China’s foreign economic and trade relations is enhanced.This paper uses principal component analysis to construct a set of indicator system to measure the trade facilitation level of 50 countries along the"Belt and Road",and analyzes its impact on China’s exports based on the expanded gravity model.In addition,this paper also classifies China’s export products from aspects of factor structure,technical structure,system of national accounts and export margins,and analyzes the impact of trade facilitation on the export of various products in detail.The study shows that compared with GDP,population and regional economic integration organizations,trade facilitation plays a more significant role in promoting China’s exports.At the same time,among the sub-indicators of trade facilitation,port and logistics efficiency and customs and border management have the greatest impact on China’s exports.For different categories of products,trade facilitation has a greater impact on China’s export of high-tech and capital-intensive products,indicating that it has a positive effect on the transformation and upgrading of China’s trade structure.