我国地方政府流动性信用风险空间关联网络特征与效应研究

Study on the Characteristics and Effects of Local Government’s Liquidity Credit Risk Network

地方政府债务风险主要是由流动性短缺引发的信用风险,这已经成为我国经济安全的最大隐患。从财务会计视角,按照流动性强弱归类,设计简要地方政府可流动性资产负债表,可以构建流动性信用风险综合指数用以衡量其风险程度。经修正引力测度风险传染力,构建空间关联网络,可探析地方政府流动性信用风险关联网络的空间结构特征,由此揭示风险网络的"鲁棒性"与"脆弱性",以及这些空间特征对流动性信用风险的影响。研究表明:我国地方政府流动性信用风险具有显著的空间溢出关联关系,相互作用形成了网络;流动性信用风险网络的"鲁棒性"逐步增强,"脆弱性"逐渐降低;"点入度"会显著增加风险,"关联度"会显著降低风险;"中间中心度"越高的地方政府会因受到较多关联省市地方政府的关联传染而增加风险;而"接近中心度"越高的地方政府会因距很多中心省市的传染距离较短而增大其自身的流动性信用风险。

The local government debt risk is mainly caused by credit risk of the liquidity shortage,which has become the biggest hidden danger of China’s economic security.From the perspective of financial accounting and in accordance with the liquidity strength,this paper designs the liquidity balance sheet of the local government,and constructs a comprehensive index of liquidity credit risk.Then,using the modified gravitational force to measure the risk contagion,the spatial association network is constructed to analyze the spatial structure characteristics of the local government liquidity credit risk association network,which reveals the"robustness"and the vulnerability of the risk network,as well as the influence of these spatial characteristics on the liquidity risk.The research shows that the liquidity credit risk of local government in China has a significant spatial spillover relationship,and the interaction forms a network.Furthermore,while the"robustness"of the liquidity of credit risk network gradually increased,the"vulnerability"would gradually decreased,the point penetration increased the risk significantly,and the correlation degree significantly reduced the risk.At last,the higher the center degree is,the higher the local government will increase the risk due to the association of more related provinces and municipalities;while the higher the central degree,the local government will increase its liquidity credit risk because of the shorter transmission distance in many central provinces and municipalities.