人口集聚、经济增长与城市空气质量——基于274个地级市数据的空间计量分析

Population Aggregation,Economic Growth and Urban Air Quality:Spatial Econometric Analysis Based On Data Of 274 Prefecture Level Cities

把握好人口与环境之间的关系是实现经济高质量发展的保证,文章选取了2005~2016年中国274个地级及以上城市的面板数据,构建空间杜宾模型实证检验了人口集聚、经济增长与城市空气质量之间的非线性空间关系。研究结果表明:1.雾霾污染具有显著的空间溢出效应,人口与雾霾污染的空间耦合性较强,东部地区呈扩大趋势,中部呈收缩趋势,区域一体化特征明显。2.人口集聚与雾霾污染存在倒"U"型空间关系,目前大部分城市处于倒"U"型曲线左侧,另外越过拐点的城市存在退化趋势;中东部地区经济增长与雾霾污染呈正"U"型关系,不符合EKC假说,且东部地区大部分城市已经越过拐点。3.节能减排政策的实施没有达到预期的效果,外商投资缓解了西部地区的雾霾污染,但在中东部地区没有发挥出正外部性。考虑不同形式的空间权重矩阵后以上结果依然具有稳健性。

Dealing with the relationship among population and environment is the guarantee for achieving high-quality economic development.Therefore,this paper selects the panel data of 274 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2005 to 2016 and uses the spatial Dubin model to test the non-linear spatial relationship among population agglomeration,economic growth and haze pollution.The results show that:1.Haze pollution has a significant spatial spillover effect,and the spatial coupling between population and haze is strong.The eastern region shows an expansion trend,the central region shows a contraction trend and the regional integration features are obvious.2.There is a nonlinear inverted"U"spatial relationship between population agglomeration and haze pollution,and most of the cities are on the left side of the inverted"U"curve,cities crossing the inflection point have a tendency to degenerate.The economic growth and haze pollution in the central and eastern regions have a positive"U"spatial relationship,which does not conform to the EKC hypothesis,and most of the cities in the eastern region have crossed the turning point.3.The implementation of energy conservation and emission reduction policy did not achieve the expected results.Foreign investment alleviated the haze pollution in the western region,but not in the central and eastern regions.After considering different forms of spatial weight matrix,the above results are still robust.