贸易冲突、“一带一路”与中国农产品进口多元化策略研究

Exploring the Diversification Strategy of China's Agricultural Products Import Under the Background of Trade Conflicts:Based on the Perspective of the"Belt and Road"Countries

采用全球多区域CGE模型对中国停止进口美国农产品的影响进行评估,测算了中国对不同"一带一路"地区开放市场的经济冲击效应。研究发现,若中国停止进口美国农产品,中美两国的实际GDP、居民福利和就业均会遭受负面冲击;中国对"一带一路"国家开放市场能够缓解美国农产品供给中断对国内经济造成的负面冲击;中国自美进口农产品中有16%-32%的部分可被"一带一路"国家取代,替代率随中国农产品市场开放程度的增加而上升;印度尼西亚、新西兰、泰国和马来西亚等国对华出口增加明显,可作为贸易冲突背景下中国农产品进口多元化的重要参考对象。

The article adopts a global multi-regional CGE model to evaluate the impact of China stopping the import of agricultural products from the United State,and calculate the economic impact of China opening up its markets to different"One Belt and One Road"regions.The study found that if China stopped importing US agricultural products,the real GDP,household welfare and employment of both countries would suffer negatively;the opening of China's market to the"One Belt And One Road"countries can alleviate the negative impact of the interruption of agricultural products supply from the United States to China's domestic economy;16%to 32%of China's imported agricultural products from the United States can be replaced by"One Belt And One Road"countries,and the replacement rate increases as the degree of opening up of China's agricultural market increases;Indonesia,New Zealand,Thailand,Malaysia and other countries have seen a significant increase in their exports to China,which can serve as an important reference for China to diversify its agricultural imports in the context of trade conflicts.