中国“十四五”能源需求预测与展望

Forecast and Prospect of Energy Demand in China’s“14th Five-year” Plan Period

"十四五"时期将是中国能源发展的又一个重大历史转型期,"清洁、低碳、安全、高效"的能源发展与转型主题将更加鲜明,能源系统转型在各级政府和各部门工作中的权重将显著增大,流入能源转型领域的各类资金将显著增多,智慧能源产业将成为重要的经济增长点并支撑能源系统转型。非化石能源规模和比重将大幅提升,化石能源需求有望接近峰值,工业用能进入下行区间,电气化水平再上大台阶。预计2025年全国能源需求总量接近55亿吨标准煤,单位GDP能耗下降16%~17%。可再生能源大发展、跨省跨区电力交易大迈步、国际能源建设合作大提升,将有力支撑中国形成"以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进"的新发展格局。

The "14 th Five-year Plan" period will be another major historical transition period for China’s energy development."Clean, lowcarbon, safe and efficient" will be the distinctive theme of energy development and transformation. Governments and departments at all levels will increase the priority of energy system transformation. Various types of funds flowing into the energy transition field will increase significantly. Smart energy industry will become an important economic growth point and support the transformation of the energy system. The scale and proportion of non-fossil energy will increase substantially, the demand for fossil energy is expected to approach its peak, industrial energy consumption will begin to decline gradually, and the electrification will reach a higher level. It is estimated that by 2025, the total national energy demand will be close to 5.5 billion tons of coal equivalent, and the energy consumption per unit of GDP will drop by16%~17%. The tremendous development of renewable energy, cross-province and cross-regional power trading, and international energy construction cooperation will support the formation of a new development pattern, which will be jointly promoted by domestic-oriented circulation, as well as domestic and international mutual circulation.