中国交通运输碳减排潜力分析

Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of China’s Transportation

在预测中国交通运输需求量的基础上,量化设置运输结构优化和交通技术进步影响参数,设计基准情景、结构优化情景、技术进步情景和低碳情景,测算中国交通运输的碳减排潜力。研究显示:中国交通运输的碳排放,2020年受新冠疫情影响明显回落;到2030年,在技术进步、结构优化、低碳发展3种情景下的碳减排潜力分别为8.20%、7.08%、14.45%。其中在低碳情景下,公路、民航运输碳排放显著下降,水路、城市客运碳排放微降,铁路运输碳排放上升,公路、民航、水路、城市客运的碳减排潜力分别为23.71%、10.43%、2.76%、4.40%,而铁路运输的碳排放高于基准情景,增加了20.08%,主要原因是运输结构优化使得铁路货运周转量大幅提升,远超过铁路技术进步带来的碳减排效果,但对于交通系统整体起到了最优碳减排效果。

Based on the prediction of China’s transportation demand, this study quantifies the impact parameters of transportation structure optimization and transportation technology progress, designs the benchmark, structural optimization, technological progress and low-carbon scenario, and calculates the carbon emission reduction potential of China’s transportation. According to the research, for China’s transport carbon emissions, it significantly falls back affected by the epidemic of COVID-19 in 2020;by 2030, under three scenarios of technological progress, structural optimization and low carbon development, the emissions-reduction potential of transport is 8.20%,7.08% and 14.45%, respectively. Among them, in the low-carbon scenario, the carbon emission of road and civil aviation transportation decreased significantly, the carbon emission of waterway and urban passenger transport decreased slightly, and the carbon emission of railway transportation increased, and the carbon emission reduction potential of road, civil aviation, waterway and urban passenger transport is 23.71%,10.43%,2.76% and 4.40% respectively, while the carbon emission of railway transportation is higher than that of the benchmark scenario, which increased by 20.08%. The main reason is that the optimization of transportation structure greatly improves the turnover of railway freight, which far exceeds the carbon emission reduction effect brought by railway technology progress, but it plays the best carbon emission reduction effect for the transportation system as a whole.