平邑县2015—2019年急性冠脉事件的发病及死亡趋势分析

ANALYSIS OF THE INCIDENCE AND MORTALITY TRENDS OF ACUTE CORONARY EVENTS IN PINGYI COUNTY FROM 2015 TO 2019

目的了解平邑县2015—2019年急性冠脉事件的发病、死亡水平和变化趋势。方法对平邑县2015—2019年急性冠脉事件发病和死亡数据进行统计学分析,利用指数平滑模型分析平邑县及辖区内各镇(街)急性冠脉事件发病、死亡随时间变化规律并预测其趋势。结果平邑县和辖区内多数镇(街)2015—2019年急性冠脉事件各年份标化发病率均随年份增长大体呈上升趋势;平邑县标化死亡率随年份增长大体呈“M”形走势,但全县和辖区内绝大多数镇(街)各年度标化死亡率波动范围很小。结论平邑县和辖区内多数镇(街)居民急性冠脉事件发病水平持续上升,死亡水平趋于平稳。

Objective To understand the morbidity,mortality,and the trend of acute coronary events in Pingyi County from 2015 to 2019.Methods The incidence and death data of acute coronary events in Pingyi County from 2015 to 2019 were statistically analyzed,and the exponential smoothing model was used to analyze the incidence and death of acute coronary events in Pingyi County and the towns(streets)within its jurisdiction over time.Its trend was forecasted.Results The standardized incidence rates of acute coronary events in Pingyi County and most towns(streets)in the jurisdiction from 2015 to 2019 increased each year,and the standardized mortality rate in Pingyi County increased each year.The increase trend had an M shape.However,most towns(streets)throughout the county and its jurisdiction have a small range of standardized mortality rates.Conclusion The incidence of acute coronary events among residents in Pingyi County and most towns(streets)within the jurisdiction continues to increase,and the mortality level tends to stabilize.