际产业转移对各国碳排放的影响研究——基于多区域投入产出模型

Impact of International Industrial Transfer on Carbon Emissions in Various Countries

研究旨在深入探究国际间产业转移与各国碳排放之间的关系。首先,结合多区域投入产出模型(MRIO)和结构分解法(SDA),对选取的42个国家因国外因素(包括国外需求因素和国外技术因素)而产生的碳排放增量进行核算。其次,利用产业转移指数衡量各国各部门的发展情况。最后,利用计量经济学模型研究碳排放与产业转移指数等变量之间的关系。实证研究的结果表明:一是国际产业转移对接收国因国外因素而产生的碳排放增量具有抑制作用,这在一定程度上对"污染避难所"假说进行了驳斥;二是产业转移在发达国家对碳排放的影响并没有在发展中国家那样凸显,在发展中国家,国外因素对碳排放增量的影响程度要比在发达国家高出约30%;三是国外技术因素对各国碳排放增量产生了抑制作用,"技术溢出"效应得证。国外因素对碳排放量的变化显示出抑制作用,虽然本文并未细化到部门层面对碳排放影响因素进行探索,但是由技术溢出效应的得证可以说明:有选择的引入国外产业,对有效减少国内碳排放有积极作用。同时,作为发展中国家,我国碳排放量对国际产业转移较为敏感,因此,对国际产业转移应持谨慎态度,鼓励高技术、低能耗的产业引进,将会有利于控制我国的环境污染状况、遏制碳排放增势。

This study aims to explore the relationship between international industrial transfer and carbon emissions in various countries.First,combined with the multi-region input-output model(MRIO)and structural decomposition method(SDA),the carbon emissions increments generated by foreign countries(including foreign demand factors and foreign technical factors)are calculated for the selected 42 countries.Second,use the industry transfer index to measure the development of various sectors of each country.Finally,the econometric regression model is used to study the relationship between carbon emissions and industrial transfer indices.The results of this empirical study show that:(1)international industrial transfer does restrain the increase of carbon emissions in the recipient countries due to foreign factors,which refutes the"pollution haven"hypothesis to some extent;(2)The impact of industrial transfer on carbon emissions in developed countries is not as prominent as that in developing countries.In developing countries,foreign factors affect the increase of carbon emissions more than in developed countries.It is about 30%higher;(3)Foreign technical factors have inhibited the increase of carbon emissions in various countries,and the"technical spillover"effect has been confirmed.Foreign factors have an inhibiting effect on the change of carbon emissions.Although this study does not explore the influencing factors of carbon emissions in detail at the sectoral level,the demonstration of technology spillover effect shows that the selective introduction of foreign industries has a positive effect on effectively reducing domestic carbon emissions.At the same time,as a developing country,China’s carbon emissions are more sensitive to international industrial transfer.Therefore,we should be cautious about international industrial transfer and encourage the introduction of high-tech and low-energy industries,which will help to control China’s environmental pollution and curb the growth of carbon emissions.