中介效应视角下环境规制对环境库茨涅兹曲线的影响研究

The influence of Environmental Regulation on Environmental Kuznets Curve from the Perspective of Intermediary Effect

在阐述环境规制对EKC影响机制的基础上,以环境污染综合指数为代理变量,运用中国2003—2017年30个省份的面板数据,构建EKC扩展模型,考察环境规制对EKC位置和峰值的影响;构建中介效应模型,分别以技术创新和产业结构升级为中介变量,考察环境规制对EKC的传导机制。结果表明:经济增长与环境污染存在倒“U”型曲线关系;环境规制对EKC的峰值和位置产生显著影响,环境规制强度的增加导致EKC向左下方移动,EKC提前达到峰值;环境规制不仅直接对EKC曲线产生影响,还通过技术创新与产业结构升级两条路径间接对抑制环境污染产生积极作用。

This paper expounds the influence mechanism of environmental regulation on EKC.The comprehensive environmental pollution index was used as the proxy variable,and the panel data of China’s 30 provinces from 2003 to 2017 were used to construct the EKC Extended Model to investigate the influence of environmental regulation on EKC location and peak value.The Mediating Effect Model was constructed to investigate the transmission mechanism of environmental regulation to EKC with technological innovation and industrial structure upgrading as mediating variables respectively.The results show that there is an inverted U-shaped curve relation between economic growth and environmental pollution.Environmental regulation has a significant impact on the peak and position of EKC,specifically,the increase of environmental regulation intensity causes the EKC to move to the lower left,and the EKC reaches its peak in advance.Environmental regulation not only has a direct impact on EKC curve,but also indirectly plays a positive role in curbing environmental pollution through technological innovation and industrial structure upgrading.