基于关键气象因子的河北省马铃薯产量预报

Potato Yield Forecast in Hebei Province Based on Meteorological Key Factors

基于1983—2019年河北省马铃薯产量数据及同期河北省21个气象站逐旬平均气温、降水量、日照时数,采用因子膨化及相关分析方法,确定影响河北省马铃薯产量的关键气象因子,建立马铃薯产量预报模型,并利用预报模型对1983—2015年马铃薯产量进行回代检验,对2016—2019年马铃薯单产进行预报。结果表明:马铃薯产量对7—9月的气温、日照时数比较敏感,且气温对马铃薯产量的影响大于日照时数。各起报时间预报产量趋势回代检验正确率为75.7%~91.7%,预报产量回代检验准确率为83.6%~91.4%;2016—2019年历年产量预报准确率为83.5%~95.3%,且随着起报时间的后移,预报准确率逐渐提高。

Based on the potato yield data in Hebei Province from 1983 to 2019,the average temperature,precipitation and sunshine hours every ten days from 21 meteorological stations during the same period,the meteorological key factors influencing potato yield were determined by means of factor puffing and correlation analysis.The forecast model of potato yield was established and this model was tested during 1983-2015 and was applied during 2016-2019.The results show that potato yield in Hebei Province was sensitive to temperature and sunshine from July to September,and the effect of temperature on potato yield was greater than sunshine hours.The average trend backtesting accuracy ranged from 75.7%to 91.7%for different initial forecast time,the average backtesting accuracy of forecast potato yield ranged from 83.6%to 91.4%,and the forecast accuracy of potato yield during 2016-2019 ranged from 83.5%to 95.3%,and with the backward of initial forecast time,the forecast accuracy improved gradually.