财政支出、城市化与居民消费——对扩大内需的再思考

Fiscal Expenditure,Urbanization,and Household Consumption——Rethinking About Expanding Domestic Demand

关注政府财政支出对居民消费的直接影响,引入城市化作为中介变量与调节变量,分析财政支出通过城市化影响居民消费的中介效应与调节效应,以及政府财政支出、城市化与居民消费之间的动态效应。结果表明,无论是采用分步骤回归方法还是加入交互项,都显示政府财政支出有直接负向“挤出”居民消费的效果,而城市化在其中发挥正向的中介效应与调节效应。政府财政支出虽然在当期“挤出”居民消费,但在滞后一期与滞后五期的动态效应中能够“挤入”居民消费;而城市化无论在当期、滞后一期还是滞后三期的动态效应中都能“挤入”居民消费。因此,未来应通过城市化的合理推进削弱政府财政支出对居民消费的短期“挤出”效应,并在长期通过合理扩大政府财政支出发展城市化,从而有效提高居民消费水平。

Based on existing studies,this paper puts forward theoretical hypotheses,analyzes the direct influence of governments fiscal expenditure on household consumption,and takes urbanization as the mediator and the regulator,to analyze the mediating and regulatory effects of governments fiscal expenditure on household consumption through urbanization.Besides,the dynamic effects among governments fiscal expenditure,urbanization and household consumption are also discussed.It is found that,both the stepwise regression and the regulatory effects concerning the interaction term show that governments fiscal expenditure can directly crowd out household consumption,while urbanization plays a positive mediating and regulatory effect in it;governments fiscal expenditure crowds out household consumption at the current period,while crowds it in through the 1-lag and the 5-lag dynamic effects,and urbanization crowds it in through the current period,the 1-lag period and the 3-lag period.Therefore,urbanization can decrease the crowding out effect of fiscal expenditure on household consumption.In the future,the rational promotion of urbanization should weaken the crowding out effect of governments fiscal expenditure on household consumption and in the long and mid-run,the expand of fiscal expenditure and development of urbanization should be increased,so as to effectively improve the household consumption level.