基于VAR模型的安徽省地方财政支农支出与农村居民消费关系研究

Research on the relationship between local financial expenditure for agriculture and rural residents′consumption in Anhui Province based on VAR model

基于安徽省1999—2018年财政支农支出与农村居民人均消费支出的数据,采用单位根检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验等方法,分析安徽省财政支农支出与农村居民消费的关系.结果发现,两者之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,即长期来看安徽省财政支农支出的增加对农村居民消费具有较为显著的挤入作用.建议加大安徽省财政支农支出,鼓励农村地区发展特色经济,增加农民收入,以扩大安徽省农村居民消费需求.

Based on the data of financial expenditure for agriculture and rural residents′consumption in Anhui Province from 1999 to 2018,the relationship between the financial expenditure for agriculture and rural residents′consumption in Anhui Province was analyzed by using the methods of unit root test,cointegration test and Granger causality test.The results showed that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the two,that is to say,in the long run,the increase of financial expenditure for agriculture in Anhui Province has a more significant crowding effect on rural residents′consumption.It is suggested that the Anhui Province should increase the financial expenditure for agriculture,encourage the development of characteristic economy in rural areas,and increase farmers′income,so as to expand the consumption demand of rural residents in Anhui Province.