近31年登陆海南岛热带气旋时空格局变化分析

Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Pattern of Tropical Cyclone Landing on Hainan Island in Recent 31 Years

为全面了解登陆海南岛热带气旋的时空特征和强度规律,减少其造成的灾害损失。利用1988~2018年登陆海南岛热带气旋资料,采用数理统计和GIS空间分析方法,分析了登陆海南岛热带气旋时空格局变化特征。结果表明:①登陆海南岛的热带气旋年均1.5个,登陆时间主要集中于夏秋两季,7月份是登陆高峰期;②登陆地点主要集中在海南岛东南沿海市县,频数最高的为万宁,占比31.4%,其次为文昌,占比27.5%;③热带气旋主要移动路径以西行为主,占比80.4%,其中心登陆海南岛东南沿海市县,向西横穿本岛后进入北部湾;④热带气旋的强度等级包括热带低压、热带风暴、强热带风暴、台风、强台风和超强台风6类,其中台风占比最大,达37.3%。研究结果可为海南岛防灾减灾提供科学依据与决策支持。

In order to understand the tropical cyclones landing on Hainan Island in a more comprehensive way,the temporal and spatial patterns of tropical cyclones landing on Hainan Island were studied by using the data of tropical cyclones landing on Hainan Island in 1988~2018.Through mathematical statistics and GIS methods,the results show that:①there are 1.5 tropical cyclones landing on Hainan Island each year.The tropical cyclone landing is mainly concentrated in summer and autumn,and the peak is in July.②The landing sites of tropical cyclones are mainly in the southeast coastal cities and counties of Hainan Island;the highest frequency of landing sites is Wanning,accounting for 31.4%,followed by Wenchang,accounting for 27.5%;③The main moving route of tropical cyclones landing on Hainan Island is westbound,and the tropical cyclone center is on the southeast coast of the island.The county enters the Beibu Gulf after crossing the island;④The tropical cyclone intensity levels landing on Hainan Island include tropical low pressure,tropical storm,strong tropical storm,typhoon,strong typhoon and super typhoon.Typhoon accounts for the most,about 37.3%.This study can provide scientific basis and reasonable decision-making basis for disaster prevention and mitigation in Hainan Island.