贝叶斯检验与颠覆性技术评价

Evaluation of the Bayes Test and Disruptive Technology

科学检验与科学评价关系密切相关,前者是后者的前提/基础,后者是对前者的反映。科学评价的对象是科学活动和科学研究活动,是科技资源配置与科技创新发展的重要依据,对科学实践具有指导意义。科学评价具有相对性和局限性,需要在指导实践的过程中不断进行完善。文章针对颠覆性技术创新的评审这一难题,尝试从贝叶斯检验理论出发,由检验决定评价的角度,寻求得到颠覆性技术评价的一个可行方式。

Scientific inspection is closely related to scientific evaluation. The former is the premise/basis of the latter while the latter is the reflection of the former. The object of scientific evaluation is scientific activity and scientific research activity, which is an important basis for the allocation of scientific resources and the development of scientific innovation. Scientific evaluation has its relativity and limitation, which needs to be improved continuously in the process of guiding practice. Aiming at the problem of evaluation of disruptive technology innovation, this paper tries to find a feasible way to evaluate disruptive technology from the point of view of Bayes Test Theory and evaluation determined by test.