劳动力成本上升倒逼棉花全要素生产率增长了吗——基于要素投入结构的中介效应检验

Has the Rise of Labor Cost Forced Cotton to Upgrade Its Total Factor Productivity in China?——Based on the Mediating Effect of Factor Input Structure

近年来,劳动力成本上升问题已成为社会各界关注的焦点。为了分析劳动力成本上升对棉花全要素生产率的影响,本文利用1999—2017年中国12个棉花主产省份数据,从要素投入结构的中介效应视角检验了劳动力成本上升对棉花全要素生产率的倒逼效应。研究结果表明:(1)劳动力成本上升抑制了棉花全要素生产率的增长,要素投入结构在劳动力成本的抑制效应中具有中介作用;(2)劳动力成本上升对不同棉区的棉花全要素生产率存在异质性影响,内地棉区受生产技术、土地规模等约束,难以实现棉花生产方式的革新,存在显著的"倒逼失灵"现象,而具有技术和土地规模优势的西北内陆棉区缓解了劳动力成本上升导致的抑制效应,但仍未显著倒逼棉花全要素生产率增长。

In recent years,the problem of rising labor costs has become the focus of all walks of life.In order to analyze the impact of rising labor cost on total factor productivity of cotton,using the data of 12 major cotton-producing provinces in China from 1999 to 2017,this paper tests the effect of rising labor cost on total factor productivity of cotton from the perspective of the intermediary effect of the factor input structure.The results show that:(1)the rise of labor cost restrains the growth of total factor productivity,and the structure of factor input plays an intermediary role in the restraining effect of labor cost;(2)the rise of labor cost has a heterogeneous effect on total factor productivity in different cotton areas,and it is difficult to realize the mode of cotton production in inland cotton areas due to the constraints of production technology and land scale.There is a significant"forced mechanism failure"in the innovation of cotton production,while the northwest inland cotton area with the advantages of technology and land scale has alleviated the restraining effect caused by the rising labor cost,but it has not yet significantly forced the growth of total factor productivity of cotton.