四川盆地火箭人影作业效果分析

Analysis of Weather Modification Operation Effect by Rocket in Sichuan Basin

通过对2016—2018年四川盆地火箭人影作业信息统计分析得出:人影作业以增雨(雪)为主,20时—次日04时为作业期间用弹量最大、作业次数最多、作业面积最广的时间段。从作业效果时间变化看,2016年7月用弹量和作业面积最大,作业效果也最好,4—9月为作业效果高值时间段,2017—2018年春夏季用弹量和作业效果、作业面积和作业效果均呈现反相关;从空间分布来看,2016—2017年较好以上效果主要位于盆地中部和西北部,2018年较好以上效果明显扩大。从作业效率E来看,盆地东南部一直维持较高水平。对于盆地4种常见作业装备,WR-1D更是全部达到较好以上,WR-98从2017年冬季到2018初效果较差;增雨雪作业主要采用BL-1型,防雹作业主要采用BL-1型和WR-1D型。人影作业影响影子主要包括人员素质、装备种类、实际作业、天气影响4个方面,其中站点选择为最重要的因素。

Based on the statistical analysis of the weather modification effect by rocket in Sichuan Basin from 2016 to 2018,it is concluded that the weather modification is mainly increasing rain(snow),and 20∶00—04∶00 of the next day is the period with the largest amount of ammunition,the largest number of operations and the largest area during the operation.From the perspective of the time variation change of operation effect,in July 2016,the ammunition used and the operation area are the largest,and the effect is the best.April to September is the period of high value for the operation effect.The ammunition consumption and the operation effect,and operationare all inversely correlated in the spring and summer of 2017—2018.From the perspective of spatial distribution,the better effects in 2016—2017 are mainly located in the middle and northwest of the basin,and the effects above the better in 2018 were obviously expanded.In terms of operation efficiency E,the southeast part of the basin has always maintained a high level.For the four common operation equipments in the basin,WR-1D is all better more than good,and the effect of wr-98 is less effective from winter 2017 to early 2018;BL-1 type is mainly used for precipitation and snow increasing operation,and BL-1 type and WR-1D type are mainly used for hail suppression operation.The influence of shadow operation mainly includes four aspects:personnel quality,equipment type,actual operation and weather influence,among which site selection is the most important factor.