黑龙江省2020年肉类市场现状及2021年发展前景分析

Current situation in 2020 and development prospect in 2021 ofmeat market in Heilongjiang province

2020年黑龙江省生猪生产恢复较快,供需矛盾仍然突出。2020年末全省生猪存栏1371万头,比2019年末增加198万头,增长16.9%,已经恢复到正常年份的90%以上。生猪屠宰量大幅下降,进口猪肉增加,猪肉市场总体稳定。据估算,2020年全省生猪屠宰量800万头,比上年同期下降近15.3%。预计2021年肉类市场形势总体向好,但仍将处于修复性发展状态。目前,全球性新冠疫情远未结束,形势依然严峻复杂,国际国内经济活动仍将受到不同程度的影响,肉类行业将面临新的形势和挑战。生猪生产持续向好,一些潜在因素仍不可忽视。经过2年的政策调整和自然恢复,全国和黑龙江省生猪生产向好的势头已经确立,且不可逆转。新的产业政策将影响区域产业布局,引导生猪屠宰加工向养殖集中区域转移;“运猪”向“运肉”转变。生猪市场的高价位时代行将结束,肉类企业将开启薄利发展新时期。

Although the production of live pigs in Heilongjiang province recovered rapidly in 2020,the contradiction between supply and demand was still prominent.By the end of 2020,the inventory of live pigs was 13.71 million in the province.1.98 million pigs were increased compared with the end of 2019,and it was increased by 16.9%,and it had returned to more than 90%of the normal year.The slaughter amounts of live pigs decreased significantly,and the import of pork increased,and the pork market was generally stable.It was estimated thatslaughter amounts of live pigs was 8 million in 2020,and it decreased nearly 15.3%compared with the same period last year.The overall meat market situation was expected to improve in 2021,but it would remain in a state of restorative development.At present,the global COVID-19 was far from over,the situation was still serious and complex,and international and domestic economic activities would still be affectedat different degree,and the meat industry would face new situations and challenges.The production of live pigs continued to improved,some potential factors could not be ignored.After two years of policy adjustment and natural recovery,the good trend of production of live pigs in China and Heilongjiang province were established,and it was irreversible.The regional industry distribution was affected by the new industrial policy.Pig slaughtering and processing was guided to transfer to concentrated breeding areas,and"transporting pigs"was transferred to"transporting meat".The era of high price in pig market came to an end,and a new era of low profit development of meat enterprises would be opened.