基于炒作周期曲线的新兴技术态势及政策系统供给研究

Research on the Development Trend and Policy System Construction of Emerging Technologies Based on Hype Cycle

加特纳炒作周期报告连续25年为美国占据世界新兴信息技术高地提供了前瞻性判识,新兴信息技术的整体态势如何演化和利用研究将为中国制定新一轮信息领域新兴技术规划编制提供关键信息。本文基于近20年的曲线数据,从整体上分析245项新兴技术的变化特征,分析信息领域的高频新兴技术、技术成熟量和消失量、期望膨胀和消退速度,并结合中国知网重要报纸数据库,展现技术期望判识和炒作周期曲线的关联。研究表明,仅5项新兴技术基本能够完整经历曲线跨越;技术期望膨胀时间略高于衰减时间,个人生活类膨胀和消失快于组织应用类技术;钟形曲线明显左偏,从槽底走向成熟需1至4年时间;环境变革和概念盲目炒作等能部分解释技术消失的原因;以高频、成熟、消失和膨胀四个代表性技术为例,验证媒体热度判识与技术所处曲线位置存在关联。据此提出一套信息技术领域新兴技术政策系统供给模型及考虑期望管理的规划设计方案,为政府管理实践提供参考。

The United States has published Gartner Cycle Reports for 25 years to help to anchor its position in the emerging technologies in the whole world.The research on how to grasp the trend of emerging technologies would provide key information to the new round of government technology.This research builds the database of emerging technologies on the basis of Gartner Hype Cycle from 2000 to 2019,analyzes the characteristics of 245 technologies in the IT field by describing the high-frequency emerging technology,the maturity and disappearance of emerging technology,and the expansion and decline speed of technology expectation.We also make good use of the CNKI Key Newspapers Database to display the relevance between technology expectations recognition and the positioning of one technology on the curve.The research results are as follows:Only 5 technologies experienced the whole process;The expected average expansion time is slightly higher than the average attenuation time and individual-related technologies are much faster than the organization-application technologies in the above time length;The bell curve is left-sided and it takes 1-4 years from the trough to maturity;Environment revolution and concept technology hype could partially explain the disappearance;By taking the example of high-frequency,matured,disappeared and expectation expanded technologies,the position that one technology is on the curve could be estimated in advance by its news media exposure.On this basis,we develop a model for IT field emerging technology policy system design and provide a plan for the technology planning with consideration of public expectation,which would be reference for the government management practice for emerging technologies.