河南省普惠金融发展对新型城镇化进程的影响——2006—2018年基于VAR模型的经验分析

The Influence of Henan Inclusive Financial Development on New Urbanization——An Experiential Analysis Based on VAR Model 2006—2018

城镇化是现代化的必由之路,其稳步推进过程中需要全面充足的金融支持。以河南省为例,基于其2006—2018年相关数据,测度了普惠金融发展水平,借助VAR模型剖析了城镇化与普惠金融发展间的动态关系。实证结果显示,两者之间存在双向格兰杰因果关系,且均为正向效应,但互动关系不够显著。相对而言,城镇化对普惠金融的影响小、周期长,普惠金融对城镇化率的作用更为直接迅速,说明二者之间的良性互动关系尚未形成,河南省普惠金融发展的深度与广度有待提升。

Urbanization is the only way to modernization,and the adequate financial support is required in its steady development progress.This paper takes Henan Province as an example,measures the development level of inclusive finance based on the relevant data from 2006 to 2018,and further analyzes the interactive relationship between urbanization and inclusive financial development with the help of VAR Model.The empirical results show that there is a two-way Granger causality between them and both have positive effects,but the interaction is not significant enough.Relatively speaking,urbanization has a small impact on inclusive finance with a long cycle,and inclusive finance has a more direct and rapid effect on the urbanization rate.This indicates that the favorable interaction between inclusive finance and urbanization has not yet been formed,and the depth and breadth of inclusive finance in Henan province needs to be developed.