基于集合模型的草地贪夜蛾的潜在分布预测

Ensemble predicting of Spodoptera frugiperda potential distribution

【目的】探讨世界范围和我国草地贪夜蛾对玉米等作物的危害。【方法】采用生态位模型集合预测方案,结合基于中分辨率成像光谱仪(MODIS)的玉米种植密度模拟,对世界范围和我国草地贪夜蛾潜在分布进行了分析。【结果】世界范围内玉米的密集种植区已完全被草地贪夜蛾的潜在分布区所覆盖,这些适生区内的玉米受到草地贪夜蛾的威胁,需重点防控,非玉米种植的适生区内应监测草地贪夜蛾对非玉米类农作物的侵害。在我国,华北平原春播玉米区和黄淮平原夏播玉米区属于草地贪夜蛾的高风险区,其次为东北三省和西南密集种植区,南方丘陵玉米区和西北灌溉玉米区受草地贪夜蛾的影响相对较小,各地区受草地贪夜蛾威胁程度不同,应有区别地进行防控。我国东南和华南地区是草地贪夜蛾高适生区,这些非玉米密集种植区应监控草地贪夜蛾对非玉米类农作物的影响。【结论】基于集合模型预测,将草地贪夜蛾的潜在分布和玉米种植密度整合分析可以加深对二者空间分布的整体认识,利于草地贪夜蛾风险分析和综合防治。

【Aim】To estimate the potential risk of Spodoptera frugiperda to corn and other crops in China and other parts of the world.【Method】In this study,we integrated moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer(MODIS)based maize planting data with ensemble ecological niche model forecast of S.frugiperda potential distribution to estimate the risk.【Result】We found that intensively corn planting areas were covered by high suitable areas of S.frugiperda that estimated by ensemble models across the globe,pest control programs should thus be enforced in these corn planting areas,where monitoring and scouting programs should be taken in non-corn planting areas.In China,spring corn are planted in North China Plain and summer corn in Huanghuai Plain,they all fell into high suitable areas of S.frugiperda,intensive corn planning area in southwestern China and in three provinces of the northeastern China have medium risk,where corn planting in mountain areas in southern China and irrigated corn in northwestern China have low risk.Different efforts should target on these areas accordingly as they showed different risk of infest.In the non-intensive corn planting areas in southern and southeastern China,the potential of S.frugiperda infest on non-corn crops(e.g.rice and bean)should be carefully monitored,as these areas have high suitability values.【Conclusion】Integration S.frugiperda potential distribution from ensemble forecast with the host plant corn planting lead us a better knowledge of their distributions,which will benefit risk analysis and pest management.