利率市场化进程中利率传导效果的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Transmission Effect of Interest Rate in the Process ofInterest Rate Marketization

疏通利率传导障碍,增强利率传导效果有利于提高资金配置效率,调控宏观经济运行。基于2009年1月至2019年12月的月度数据,实证分析了中国不同利率间的传导效率和实际利率对实体经济的传导效果。研究表明:不同利率间的传导整体高效,部分阻滞,隐形的利率管制仍然存在;实际利率与宏观经济变量在长期中存在着均衡关系;实际利率向投资、产出传导高效,向消费、物价传导存在阻滞。

Clearing the barriers of interest rate transmission and enhancing the effect of interest rate transmission are conducive to improving the efficiency of capital allocation and regulating the macroeconomic operation.This paper selects the monthly data from January 2009 to December 2019 to analyze the transmission efficiency between different interest rates and the transmission effect of real interest rates on the real economy.The results show that:the transmission between different interest rates is effective as a whole,but is ineffective partially,and the invisible interest rate regulation still exists;macroeconomic variables have an equilibrium relationship with real interest rates in the long term;the transmission of real interest rates to investment and output is efficient at present,while the conduction to consumption and prices is blocked.