市域尺度下中国农业低碳发展水平空间异质性及影响因素——来自种植业的检验

Research on Spatial Heterogeneity and Influencing Factors of China’s Low-carbon Agriculture Development Level at City Scale:Inspection from Planting Industry

识别农业低碳发展空间异质性,对提高农业生产效率和保护农业生态环境具有重要意义。以狭义农业——种植业为研究对象,借助低碳农业发展理论,构建农业低碳发展水平评价指标体系,并应用熵值法和地理加权回归模型,探讨了357个市域尺度下的中国农业低碳发展水平的空间异质性及影响因素。研究发现:(1)中国农业低碳发展水平存在空间异质性和相关性。空间异质性表现为,市域尺度下中国农业低碳发展综合水平由西南—东北一线向东南、西北两侧递减,而碳生产水平指标对综合水平的影响最大;空间相关性表现为,西南地区、大兴安岭区农业低碳发展水平呈"高—高"聚集,辽宁、新疆和华中地区基本呈"低—低"聚集,其他地区则呈高低聚集的状态;此外,地形引起的社会经济等间接效应,大于其直接效应。(2)在空间上,劳动生产率和农业规模化对农业低碳发展水平的影响力呈"U"型与倒"U"型特征,劳动生产率对农业低碳化水平的影响由西到东呈"正向-负向-正向"的"U"型变化趋势;农业规模化呈南北低、中部高的倒"U"特征。城镇化水平对农业低碳发展水平的影响则由西向东逐步递减。

Identifying spatial heterogeneity of agricultural low-carbon development is of great significance for improving agricultural production efficiency and protecting agricultural ecological environment.In this paper,planting industry is taken as the research object,the evaluation index system of agricultural low-carbon development level is constructed with the help of the theory of low-carbon agriculture,and the entropy method and geographical weighted regression model are used to explore the spatial heterogeneity of agricultural low-carbon development level and influencing factors in China under the scale of 357 cities.The results show that:(1)there is spatial heterogeneity and correlation in the development level of low-carbon agriculture in China.The spatial heterogeneity show that the comprehensive level of China’s agricultural low-carbon development decreases from southwest to northeast to southeast and northwest at the city scale,while the carbon production level index has the greatest impact on the comprehensive level.The spatial correlation shows that the low-carbon development level of agriculture in southwest region and Daxinganling region shows high-high aggregation,while that in other regions shows high-low aggregation.In addition,the indirect effects such as social economy caused by topography are greater than their direct effects.(2)In space,the influence of labor productivity and agricultural scale on agricultural low-carbon development level is U-shaped and inverted U-shaped,and the influence of labor productivity on agricultural low-carbon level changes in a U-shaped trend from west to east.Agricultural scale is characterized by inverted"U",which is low in the north and south and high in the middle.The impact of urbanization level on agricultural low-carbon development level gradually decreases from west to east.