基于PCA的海上交通社会生命风险可接受水平研究

Research on Maritime Social Life Risk Acceptable Level Based on the PCA

近年来,随着人们风险意识的不断增强,风险管理认知的不断加深,各领域纷纷研究探讨各自的生命风险可接受水平,而海上生命风险可接受水平仍研究甚少。为充分考虑海上交通社会风险可接受水平各影响因素,本文对传统的F-N风险极限线模型进行了修正,以确定适用于海上交通社会风险可接受水平。本文首先运用层次分析法对风险可接受水平的影响因素进行筛选,得出主要影响因素;进而运用主成分分析法确定出各影响因素权重,以对初始C值进行修正,并结合我国法律法规对截止线进行修正,最终得出辽宁省水域海上交通社会生命风险可接受水平模型。

In recent years,as people to enhance awareness of risk and risk management,various fields have determined their respective life risk acceptable level,but risk acceptable level of life at sea is still little research.In order to consider various influencing factors of maritime traffic social acceptable risk level,this paper revised the literature F-N risk limit line model,determine traffic society acceptable risk level.This paper use the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)to filter factors of risk acceptable level,and find the main influencing factors.Then using the principal component analysis(PCA)method to determine the weight of influencing factors,to modify the initial C value,and combined with China's laws and regulations to modify stop line.Finally,this paper build the LiaoNing province maritime traffic social life risk acceptable level model.