基于EDM方法的农业特色产业发展与社会福利变化研究

Research on Characteristic Agricultural Industry Development and Social Welfare Changes Based on EDM Method

采用经典EDM模型,引入政府对农户的补贴和地方特色农产品品牌建设投资作为外生变量,对产业发展过程中的生产者(农户)、消费者及社会福利变化进行了理论分析,并使用唐山市板栗数据进行了蒙特卡罗模拟。研究表明,政府对农户的补贴以及对农产品品牌推广投资行为能够显著提高农产品市场上交易量,农户、消费者及整个社会的福利均有所增加。市场均衡价格则与产品供给价格弹性、需求价格弹性及外生变量弹性相关参数有关,变化率不能确定。

Under No.1 Central Government Documents’guiding spirit of promoting characteristic agricultural industry in recent years,the production of a variety of characteristic agricultural products have been boosted;yet there is a relative lack of an analysis based on the demand market of characteristic agricultural products particularly effect analysis of policy promotion,farmers’income increase and social welfare related to characteristic agricultur⁃al products.This paper employs the classical EDM method and introduces governmental subsidies to farmers and in⁃vestments in brand building of local characteristic agricultural products as the exogenous variable,conducts a theo⁃retical analysis of producers(farmers),consumers and social welfare changes in industry development process,and makes the Monte Carlo simulation with Tangshan chestnuts data.Results show that governmental subsidies to farm⁃ers and investments in brand promotion can remarkably increase the product transaction volume on the market,and farmers,consumers and social welfare all have some increase.Market equilibrium price is related to price elasticity of product supply,price elasticity of demand and exogenous variables elasticity,and its the rate of change is undeter⁃minable.The research conclusion has guiding significance for governments fully considering product market features and thus formulating relevant policies on development of characteristic agricultural industry.