金融体系对农产品物流效率影响效应的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Effect of Financial Systems on the Efficiency of Agricultural Product Logistics

利用中国30个省市区2000—2018年的面板数据,通过面板向量自回归(pvar)模型,实证研究了金融体系和农产品物流效率的内在逻辑关系。研究结果表明:(1)所有被解释变量和解释变量的数据均为平稳性数据,最优滞后期数为3期。(2)金融规模是中国农产品物流效率的显著影响因素,金融规模的扩大在不同时期都提升了农产品物流效率,金融结构同样是中国农产品物流效率的正向指标,但影响效应较小,金融效率指标不显著。(3)脉冲响应分析和方差分解结果再次表明,金融规模对中国农产品的物流效率提升效应逐期增强,最终趋于稳定;金融结构的优化对中国农产品物流效率的正向效应逐期下降;控制变量固定资产投资市场化程度对农产品物流效率的效应由负转正,逐期下降,最终趋于0。

Based on the panel data from 2000 to 2018 in 30 provinces and cities in China,the paper empirical⁃ly studies the internal logic relationship between financial systems and logistics efficiency of agricultural products by using panel vector autoregression(pvar)model.The results show that:(1)all the data of the explained variables and explanatory variables are stable data,and the optimal lag period is 3 periods;(2)the financial scale is the signifi⁃cant factor affecting the logistics efficiency of agricultural products in China,the expansion of financial scale has im⁃proved the efficiency of agricultural product logistics in different periods,and the financial structure is also a posi⁃tive indicator of the logistics efficiency of agricultural products in China,but the effect is small,and the indicator of financial efficiency is not prominent;(3)The results of impulse response analysis and variance decomposition show that the improving effect of financial scale on the logistics efficiency of agricultural products in China has been in a gradual enhancement and finally stabilized;the positive effect of financial structure optimization on the logistics effi⁃ciency of agricultural products in China has decreased gradually;the effect of the marketization degree of fixed as⁃sets investment of control variables on the logistics efficiency of agricultural products has changed from the negative to the positive,and decreased gradually,and finally come to zero.