摘要
This paper studies the pathways of peakingCO_(2) emissions of Dezhou city in China, by employing abottom-up sector analysis model and considering futureeconomic growth, the adjustment of the industrialstructure, and the trend of energy intensity. Two scenarios(a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and a CO_(2) mitigationscenario (CMS)) are set up. The results show that in theBAU scenario, the final energy consumption will peak at25.93 million tons of coal equivalent (Mtce) (16% growthversus 2014) in 2030. In the CMS scenario, the finalenergy will peak in 2020 at 23.47 Mtce (9% lower versuspeak in the BAU scenario). The total primary energyconsumption will increase by 12% (BAU scenario) anddecrease by 3% (CMS scenario) in 2030, respectively,compared to that in 2014. In the BAU scenario, CO_(2)emission will peak in 2025 at 70 million tons of carbondioxide (MtCO_(2)), and subsequently decrease gradually in2030. In the CMS scenario, the peak has occurred in 2014,and 60 MtCO_(2) will be emitted in 2030. Active policiesincluding restructuring the economy, improving energyefficiency, capping coal consumption, and using more low・carbon /carbon free fuel are recommended in Dezhou citypeaked CO_(2) emission as early as possible.
基金
the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.71690243,71373142,71774095,and 71690244)
the Low Carbon Research Project of Dezhou city,Shandong province,China(No.2013009).
