新媒体产业资本流通与价值转移的影响机制研究——以网络视听行业为例

The Influence Mechanism of Capital Circulation and Value Transfer in New Media Industry

技术突破决定了新媒体行业发展的大趋势,但促进一个业态发展演进的主要动力还有资本、用户、政策等的复合作用。本研究以网络视听行业为例,梳理了自2005年以来网络视听领域的资本数据、用户数量和监管政策(时间及数量),采用数据分析和时间序列分析方法,探讨资本流通的路径变化以及资金值、用户量、政策之间的相互影响关系。研究发现:网络视听产业的资本流通先后聚集在视频网站、直播网站和短视频平台三种业务类型上,于2007、2014和2018年形成了明显的转型节点和价值转向;资本注入带来了产业活力,而后用户汇聚和增长又带来了资本的持续流动,用户体量和投融资规模形成互为促进的双螺旋互促关系;从整体上看,新的用户结构和需求变动是形成价值转移的根本动力,但政策面指向决定了视听产业的最大边界。

Technological breakthrough determines the general trend of the new media industry,however,the compound function of capital,users and policies will also play a role.Taking the audio-visual industry as an example,this paper sorts out the capital data,the number of users and regulatory policies(time and number)since 2005,and uses data analysis and time series analysis to explore the path changes of capital flow and the interaction among capital value,user volume and policy.The research finds that:the capital flow of the audio-visual industry has gathered in three business types:video website,live website and short video platform,forming obvious transformation node and value turning in 2007,2014 and 2018;Capital injection brings industrial vitality,and then user aggregation and growth brings continuous capital flow;User volume and investment scale form mutual promotion.On the whole,the new structure and demand changes from users are the fundamental driving force for the formation of value transfer,but the direction of policy determines the largest boundary of audio-visual industry.