中国七大城市群房价对收入的影响研究

Research on the impact of house prices on income in seven major city clusters in China

采用动态面板分析方法对我国七大城市群房价与收入的关系进行理论分析和实证研究。研究结果表明:长三角城市群、珠三角城市群、京津冀城市群、长江中游城市群、中原城市群和海峡西岸城市群均表现为房价与人均可支配收入的倒U关系;成渝城市群表现为房价与人均可支配收入的正U关系。从各城市群的房价拐点看,每个城市群的房价拐点各不相同且存在较大差距,即每个城市群都拥有适合其自身发展的最优房价水平,在分析中国房价问题时不能一概而论,必须考虑和根据各城市群的发展水平来制定相应的房价政策。

Using the dynamic panel analysis method,this paper makes theoretical analysis and empirical research on the relationship between housing price and income of seven major city clusters in China.The results show that the Yangtze River Delta City Clusters,the Pearl River Delta City Cluster,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei City Cluster,the City Cluster in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River,the Central Plain City Cluster,and the City Cluster on the West Side of the Straits all show an inverted U relationship between housing prices and per capita disposable income;Chengdu-Chongqing City Cluster shows a positive U relationship between house price and per capita disposable income.From the perspective of the inflection point of housing prices in each city cluster,the inflection points of housing prices in each city cluster are different and there is a large gap,that is,each city cluster has the optimal housing price level suitable for its own development.When analyzing the housing price problems in China,we must consider and formulate the corresponding housing price policy according to the development level of each city cluster.