中国与其他金砖国家高新技术产品贸易潜力研究

Research on the trade potential of high-tech products between China and other BRIC countries

随着科技的发展,中国越来越重视高新技术产业的发展,向其他金砖国家的高新技术产品出口贸易额逐年增加。基于2000—2018年中国与其他金砖国家之间的高新技术产品贸易数据,通过贸易引力模型分析了中国向其他金砖国家高新技术产品出口的影响因素和双方的贸易潜力。结果表明,中国经济规模、其他金砖国家的人口、经济距离、技术距离和人力资本存量会促进中国对其他金砖国家高新技术产品出口,而中国人口、地理距离、金融危机在一定程度上阻碍中国对其他金砖国家高新技术产品贸易出口,其他金砖国家人口、汇率变动、其他金砖国家产权保护强度对中国向其他金砖国家高新技术产品贸易出口的影响不显著。在高新技术细分产品方面,各种指标的影响有所区别。通过整体和细分产品研究得出了中国与其他金砖国家之间高新技术产品贸易潜力还未充分发挥,具有一定的发展空间。

With the development of science and technology,China has paid more and more attention to the development of high-tech industries,and the export volume of high-tech products to other BRIC countries has increased year by year.Based on the trade data of high-tech products between China and other BRIC countries from 2000 to 2018,this paper analyzes the influencing factors of China’s export of-high-tech products to other BRIC countries and the trade potential of both sides through the trade gravity model.The results show that China’s economic scale,population of other BRIC countries,economic distance,technological distance and human capital stock of other BRIC countries will promote China’s export of high-tech products to other BRIC countries,while China’s population,geographical distance and financial crisis to a certain extent hinder China’s export of high-tech products to other BRIC countries.The population of other BRICS countries,exchange rate changes,and the intensity of property rights protection in other BRICS countries have no significant impact on China’s exports of high-tech products to other BRICS countries.In terms of high-tech products,the impact of various indicators is different.Through the overall research and the subdivision products,we draw the conclusion that the trade potential of high-tech products between China and other BRIC countries has not been fully developed,and there is certain room for development.