安徽省旱涝受灾时空特征及与降水关系研究

Study on the spatial and temporal characteristics of droughts and floodsin Anhui Province and their relationship with precipitation

旱涝灾害是安徽省主要的气象灾害,对农业生产有着重要的影响。研究安徽省旱涝灾害变化特征对降低灾害损失十分重要。基于安徽省2000—2017年旱涝受灾面积数据、降水数据,利用M-K突变检验、趋势分析法和相关性分析方法研究了安徽省旱涝受灾情况以及降水对其的影响。结果表明:安徽省旱涝受灾面积年际变化较大,且干旱受灾面积要高于洪涝受灾面积;旱涝受灾情况分别在2013年和2007年存在明显的突变,通过突变前后区域受灾情况对比可知,旱灾受灾率有明显的下降趋势,洪涝受灾率大部分呈下降趋势,但长江下游区以及长江-东南诸河区呈上升趋势;旱灾受灾面积整体都有下降趋势,南方地区下降趋势尤其显著,洪灾受灾面积南方呈上升趋势,北方呈下降趋势,且旱涝受灾面积的升降趋势与降水存在一定的关系;在3个极端降水指数中,强降水日数与旱涝受灾面积的关系最为密切。

Droughts and floods are the main meteorological disaster in Anhui Province,which have an important impact on agricultural production.It is very important to study the characteristics of drought and flood disasters change in Anhui Province to reduce disaster losses.The paper based on the drought and flood damage area data and precipitation data from 2000 to 2017 in Anhui Province,the Manner-Kendall,trend analysis method and correlation analysis were used to study the drought and flood damage in Anhui Province and the influence of precipitation on it.The results showed that:the drought and flooding affected areas in Anhui Province have a large interannual variation,and drought affected areas are higher than the flooded areas.The situation of drought and flood disasters were significantly changed in 2013 and 2007,respectively.According to the comparison of the regional disaster situation before and after the mutation,the drought disaster rate has a significant downward trend,and most of the flood disaster rates have a downward trend,but the lower Yangtze River area and the Yangtze River-southeast rivers area are increasing.The drought disasters area as a whole has a downward trend,and the decreasing trend is especially significant in the south.The flood disasters area has an upward trend in the south and a downward trend in the north.The rise or fall of the drought disasters area has a certain relationship with precipitation.Among the three extreme precipitation indexes,the number of days of heavy rainfall is most closely related to the drought and flood disasters area.